The Oscars are (finally) here! With a longer award-season than usual, I’m breaking down the most likely winners by category.
Now, I will be honest, this wasn't my favorite year for movies. While there were movies that I loved this year, the list is quite small compared to what is being nominated. So, if you are looking to watch some Oscar films before the ceremony, here is the list of movies that I recommend checking out based on what I liked best!
1. “Coda” – Apple TV+
This sweet, heart-warming family drama is exactly the feel-good movie that you want. You will fall in love with every member of the family and root for each of them.
2. “tick, tick…BOOM!” – Netflix
Even if you are not a fan of musicals, you should most definitely check out Lin Manuel-Miranda’s adaptation of the play by the same name. Andrew Garfield is amazing as Jonathon Larson, the renowned play-wright who sadly died before seeing his life work published. “Louder Than Words” is probably one of the best musical numbers I’ve heard!
3. “The Eyes of Tammy Faye” – HBO Max
Even though it seems that real life events and adaptations are flooding our screens right now, you won’t want to miss out on this one. Chastain is nearly unrecognizable fallen from grace evangelist and it paints a very different narrative than the one portrayed in the media.
4 “King Richard” – HBO Max
Although this movie is about an hour too long, it is a great story about the rise of the William’s sisters under the coaching of their dedicated father. Will Smith is amazing and if he wins, it will be deserved.
But that's just my opinion, there were many movies this year that I didn't understand nor cared for ("The Power of the Dog", "Dune", "The Lost Daughter" and "Licorice Pizza"), but that's besides the point. Here are the nominations and probable winners for this year's 94th Academy Awards!
Best Actress
This one is tough, because there have been different winners throughout Award Season and there hasn’t been one true stand-out. For this one, I’m going to have to go with the heart over the head and predict who I want to win, which is Jessica Chastain in “The Eyes of Tammy-Faye.” I watched this one late in Award-Season and I was completely blown away by Chastain’s performance. She has never won before and her chances are high in a fragmented category.
My second choice would have to be Kristen Stewart for “Spencer” (literally can’t believe I am even typing those words). While she was shut-out of nearly every other Award Show with limited nominations, she has been recognized by The Academy and even I have to admit, her performance was incredibly moving as the people’s princess. Olivia Colman is an Oscar-favorite, but it would feel completely rehearsed if she won again. She won in 2019 for “The Favourite” and was nominated again last year for “The Father”, although she did great work, would love to see someone else take it.
I’m going with my heart over my head on this one, sorry guys!
Probable Winners:
1. Jessica Chastain (“The Eyes of Tammy Faye”)
2. Kristen Steward (“Spencer”)
3. Olivia Colman (“The Lost Daughter”)
4. Penelope Cruz (“Parallel Mothers”)
5. Nicole Kidman (“Being the Ricardos”)
Best Actor
Another crowded category this year! While at the beginning of the season, people were praising Will Smith as the likely nominee and winner, the tides seem to have been turning, leaning more towards Cumberbatch in “The Power of the Dog.” At the same time, Andrew Garfield has been out here working the Red Carpet any chance he gets.
I would absolutely love Andrew Garfield to win in this category, but it seems pretty unlikely, despite his amazing performance and hard work wooing the crowd. No, it seems that this might finally be the year that Will Smith takes home Best Actor. After being nominated many times before and never winning, it seems likely that this year will be his shot. But lest not forget Benedict Cumberbatch – his win would be a very stereotypical Awards performance win and one that we shouldn’t ignore!
Probable Winners:
1. Will Smith (“King Richard”)
2. Benedict Cumberbatch (“The Power of the Dog”)
3. Andrew Garfield (“tick, tick...BOOM!”)
4. Javier Bardem (“Being the Ricardos”)
5. Denzel Washington (“The Tragedy of Macbeth”)
Best Supporting Actor
This is another category that has a very clear predicted winner. Troy Kotsur from “Coda” has been picking up wins all award season and his most recent wins at SAG and Critics Choice again lead to the very real assumption that he will be taking home the Award for Best Supporting Actor. If not for Kotsur, the next best choice is Kodi Smit-McPhee from “The Power of the Dog” a haunting and chilling performance, he is the most likely runner-up, or perhaps winner! We shall wait and see!
Probable Winners:
1. Troy Kotsur (“Coda”
2.. Kodi Smit-McPhee (“The Power of the Dog”)
3. Jesse Plemmons (“The Power of the Dog”)
4. Ciaran Hinds (“Belfast”)
5. JK Simmons (“Being the Ricardos”)
Best Supporting Actress
While I would love to see Kirsten Dunst take home her first win after her first Oscar nomination, it seems likely that Ariana Debose will take home the win for “West Side Story.” Not that she isn’t fit to win, she had a great performance, but it’s such a surprise that Dunst has been in Hollywood for the better part of nearly three decades and this is her first nomination. I literally have no idea how Judi Dench got nominated for her five-minute performance in “Belfast” and Jessie Buckley could be a surprise win.
Here are my picks!
Probable Winners:
1. Ariana Debose (“West Side Story”)
2. Kirsten Dunst (“The Power of the Dog”)
3. Jessie Buckley (“The Lost Daughter”)
4. Aunjanue Elli (“King Richard”)
5. Judi Dench (“Belfast”)
Best Director
It is an absolute crime that Denis Villeneuve is not nominated in this category. Now, I’m not saying that I loved “Dune” or even remotely understood it, but what I do know is that the movie is visually stunning and it’s a shame that it’s not being recognized in the Director Category.
While Paul Thomas Anderson (“Licorice Pizza”) is an Oscar-favorite, it seems very likely that Jane Campion (“The Power of the Dog”) will take home the coveted trophy this year. Again, I didn’t totally understand the movie, but lots of other people did and loved it. Plus, it would be exciting to see female directors win back-to-back, following Chloe Zhao (“Nomadland”) in 2021.
Probable Winners:
1. Jane Campion (“The Power of the Dog”)
2. Kenneth Branagh (“Belfast”)
3. Paul Thomas Anderson (“Licorice Pizza”)
4. Steven Spielberg (“West Side Story”)
5. Ryûsuke Hamaguchi (“Drive My Car”)
Best Picture
At the beginning of Award Season, there were pretty much only two, clear favorites people predicted to win: “Belfast” and “The Power of the Dog.” Now that we have made it through the Golden Globes, SAG Awards and Critics Choice with everything in between, one clear front-runner has broken its way through the crowd. “Coda.”
Now, I love movies, obviously, I have a movie blog, but I really don’t understand the backlash against “Coda” being a front-runner. It’s sincere, earnest and it’s not overly complicated. People understand and enjoy it. “Belfast” can also be considered to fit in one of these boxes as well, but the momentum it gained in the early festival season seems to have faded a bit. And “The Power of the Dog” …well, I’d be lying if I said I understood the plot.
So where does that leave us? See below for my highest-probability Best-Picture Rankings:
Probable Winners:
1. "Coda"
2. "The Power of the Dog"
3. "Belfast"
4. "West Side Story"
5. "King Richard"
6. "Drive My Car"
7. "Licorice Pizza"
8. "Dune"
9. "Don’t Look Up"
10. "Nightmare Alley"
Don't forget to tune in to the Oscars on Sunday, March 27th to catch all the winners and all the drama!
And that's the sitch!
Comments