Happy Oscar Day! Today is the day that we will see the 92nd Academy Awards unfold and I have a lot of questions. First off this is the first year that I have truly seen all Best Picture Nominees which means that my opinions are totally valid and un-biased….ok obviously kidding.
But still this is the first year that I can look at an entire group of films and make assumptions based on their placements in tonight’s Award Show. But before we get into that, let’s just start out by saying that tonight’s show might just be the most boring Oscar Show there has been in a while.
Why? Because virtually all the Top 4 Categories: Best Actor/Actress and Best Supporting Actor/Actress have pretty much swept wins in every Award Show leading up to the Oscars. Golden Globes, SAG, BAFTA, etc it has all been the same 4 Winners every time. Which is great, for the most part. I believe that 2 of the 4 should be standing on the Stage and collecting their Trophy, but the other 2 I have a feeling that they will win just because they have the momentum behind them.
BEST ACTRESS:
Let’s start with Best Actress. It seems pretty clear that Renee Zelwegger will win for her role in “Judy”, where she played….Judy Garland. First of all, Renee started campaigning for this win at Telluride Film Festival way back in September so she has been out ahead of the curve. But is it the best performance? Judy was a boring film, it didn’t make a lot of money and to be honest, not very many people saw it. She did have a great performance in the role, but does a great performance in a bad movie equal Oscar? I guess everyone else seems to think so.
There has also been an argument here that Charlize Theron could win for her role as Megyn Kelly in “Bombshell”. Theron was completely transformed to look like Megyn Kelly for her role, when you were watching her walk through the Fox News Room you actually questioned, wait, is that Megyn Kelly? She looked, acted and spoke exactly like her. But does imitation lead to an Oscar Winner? Also, do we really want to see Megyn Kelly semi get recognized as the hero of the story in “Bombshell”. I don’t. And that was my issue with the movie in the first place.
Saoirse Ronan (“Little Women”), Cynthia Erivo (“Harriet)” and Scarlett Johansson (“Marriage Story”) are also nominated here. I would love it if Saoirse would take home a win, she is the youngest ever 4-time nominated actress. Erivo doesn’t really stand a chance in Harriet, the movie was bad and her nomination has been criticized as the diversity choice in the category. Johansson, probably not as she is nominated as well in Best Supporting Actress.
Who I think will win: Renee Zellweger, “Judy”
Who I want to win: Saoirse Ronan
BEST ACTOR:
Moving on to Best Actor. Again, it seems obvious that the winner will be Joaquin Phoenix for his role in “Joker” as he has collected wins every step of the way and with his wins, he has delivered politically charged acceptance speeches which has sparked other debates around his win and political policies. It is a known fact that the speeches that you give when you win at the start of the race set precedent for the other wins down the line. If you give a emotional, heart felt speech, the internet will be taking about it for weeks which promotes the show, which elevates Award Season and can very much carry you into the next show as the front-runner. Joaquin has done just that. After delivering a comic driven and climate change charged acceptance speech at the Golden Globes, he also went on to win the BAFTA and delivered an even stronger political message during his acceptance about inclusion riders in the film industry, promoting diversified stories and actors and actresses.
He has a 99.9% chance of winning again tonight at The Oscars. I’m fine with this, I guess. I liked the movie “Joker” just fine, but I do not believe it deserves all the acclaim that it has been receiving. “Joker” received one of the highest Oscar nominations this year with a shocking 11 nominations, and most in the major categories.
Other nominations in this category: Jonathon Pryce (“The Two Popes”), Antonio Banderas (“Pain and Glory”), Adam Driver (“Marriage Story”), and Leonardo DiCaprio (“Once Upon A Time…In Hollywood”). My choice here would go to Adam Driver in “Marriage Story” or Jonathon Pryce in “The Two Popes”. Both have vastly different parts – Pryce with a quieter performance as Pope Francis and explains the segregation of the church as Pope Benedict steps down from the Papacy – I loved this movie and found it extremely interesting as it examines the schism between the old and new ways of thought in the Catholic Church. Driver in “Marriage Story” has 2 very specific scenes that push him over the edge for me. The first, I’m sure everyone has seen as it has been ‘gifed and ‘memed all over the Internet, but the fight scene between Charlie (Driver) and Nicole (Johansson) as they finally hash out the failure of their marriage. It shows Driver as a loud, big force as he delivers the scene with anger and hurt. The second is the end, when Driver finds the note that Nicole wrote to him in therapy, explaining all of the things that she loves about him while he reads the note to their son.
I don’t mean to exclude Banderas and DiCaprio (Leo, you know I love you), but it seems the Oscar will go to Joaquin in “Joker”.
What I think will win: Joaquin Phoenix, “Joker”
What I want to win: Adam Driver, “Marriage Story”
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Best Supporting Actress – another for sure win is Laura Dern for her role as the divorce lawyer in “Marriage Story”. I am 100% ok with this choice. Again, like Joaquin and Renee, Laura Dern has collected her wins across the trail. In “Marriage Story” Dern plays the ruthless divorce lawyer that we have come to see across the years in smaller pieces. However, “Marriage Story” really gives her role the time to shine as the story is largely centered around the political aspects of the divorce. She steals the show in “Marriage Story” and is going to win again tonight.
While I say that I am ok with Laura Dern winning in this place, its only because Jennifer Lopez for her role in “Hustlers” is noticeably absent, something that I am extremely NOT ok with. I saw “Hustlers” twice and even after seeing all the other films and roles nominated, I do not understand why Lopez wasn’t nominated for her role as Ramona. It obvious that the Academy isn’t ready for a movie like this and historically has rejected movies largely centered around female stories, directed by female directors but “Hustlers” was a fantastic, entertaining movie and Lopez is incredible. Still mad about the lack of recognition here.
Other Best Supporting Actress nominations Florence Pugh (“Little Women”), Margot Robbie (“Bombshell”), Scarlett Johansson (“JoJo Rabbit”) and Kathy Bates (“Richard Jewell”). I would be ok with all of these nominations as well. All nominees had great individual scenes and speeches that spoke to me.
Who I think is going to win: Laura Dern, “Marriage Story”
Who I want to win: Laura Dern, “Marriage Story” (Jennifer Lopez, though)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Moving onto Best Supporting Actor. Brad Pitt (“Once Upon a Time…In Hollywood”) Same story as the top three, Brad Pitt has won in every Award Show leading up to The Oscars and as delivered charming, comical acceptance speeches that have been referring to his dating life. He will win again tonight.
Other nominations in this category: Al Pacino (“The Irishman”), Joe Pesci (“The Irishman”), Anthony Hopkins (“The Two Popes”), and Tom Hanks (“A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood.”)
What I think will win: Brad Pitt (“Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood”)
What I want to win: Brad Pitt (“Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood”)
BEST PICTURE:
Now moving on to perhaps the most controversial pick, Best Picture. There are a total of 9 Nominations in this Category: “JoJo Rabbit”, “Joker”, “Marriage Story”, “The Irishman”, “Once Upon a Time…In Hollywood”, “Little Women”, “Ford v. Ferrari”, “1917”, and “Parasite.” Although there 9 nominations in this category, it is clear from previous discourse and award chatter that the 2 front-runners are “1917” and “Parasite.” If you have not seen these movies and you have an opinion on which is going to win – you might be wrong.
Parasite v. 1917 Best Picture Debate by Laura Devine
“1917” is a visual masterpiece, we are introduced to a new way of filming, a new way of storytelling through the one-consecutive-shot camera angles. Directed by Sam Mendes, he first introduced us to this new wave of technology in the opening scene in “Skyfall” (2012). The opening scene was considered ground-breaking because you are following Bond through a car chase weaving between buildings without breaking to new scenes, it is one-consecutive shot. This was the first test by Mendes, after proving successful, he decided to turn that shot into one movie, which gives us “1917” just eight years later.
“1917” has 3 forty minute or more chunks where we do not break from the characters as they attempt to make their way across no-mans-land, battlefields and cities to deliver a message to the Allies to call off an attack that could massacre thousands of troops. These shots are broken up a bit when the characters enter darkness or when they black out and then we pick up again, but for the most part it is one shot. It’s an incredible achievement in cinematography, directing, and film editing, but does that mean it’s a Best Picture? No actors were nominated for Oscars in this film and frankly, it’s a war film that we have seen before, there is no original story, what makes the story extraordinary is the way that it is shot. I loved this movie, but to me, it should win in the Cinematography Categories, not Best Picture.
This brings us to “Parasite”, the film from South Korea that is shattering box office records for a foreign films. I did a write up on this movie last week, but it essentially follows the Kim Family as they attempt to infiltrate the Park Family’s lives, using their wealth to benefit themselves. It is a story of class structure in South Korea, but really in any part of the world. I have now seen this film twice and each time, I have been blown away by the story-telling. Its comical, it's dark, twisted and just when you think you know how the story will end, you are met with a punch in the face as it diverts itself, morphing into a completely different movie.
Similar to “1917”, there are no acting nominations for “Parasite”, which again seems like a miss to me. This isn’t the first time a foreign film has been nominated in Best International Feature and Best Picture Categories, we saw it last year with “Roma”. Although “Roma” didn’t win, I certainly believe that “Parasite” has a chance here.
CLOSING ARGUMENT: We have seen stories like "1917" before and we will continue to see them over the ages, but I firmly believe that we have never seen a story like "Parasite" before and it deserves the recognition.
There are a lot of films every year, we can’t see them all. But I encourage everyone to check out “1917” and “Parasite” as these really were the Best Movies of 2019.
What I think will win: “1917”
What I want to win: “Parasite”
And that’s all for the major categories, I included my picks below on what I think will win v. what I want to win, but other than that…It’s Oscar Day!
And that’s the sitch.
2020 OSCAR BALLOT – LAURA DEVINE
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