It’s 2020 and so far, nothing new has been released in theaters in over 3-Weeks. So, if we were judging our current content so far, Elizabeth Moss (Invisible Man) and Ben Affleck (The Way Back) would be nominated for Best Actress and Best Actor if this was all the content that we have to go on.
Hopefully, that is not the case. Although both are gifted actors, the movies were both popular culture movies and while they were great performances, they are not the type to likely receive Award Buzz. But maybe! We haven’t had a new movie release in theaters since The Hunt (3/13) due to COVID warnings and social distancing measures, movie theaters have been closed going on 4-Weeks. The movie industry is already suffering with the rise of streaming services and quick to rent movie options appearing on our TVs. Could coronavirus escalate the already accelerated crisis of getting people to the theaters? Will movie chains recover after going dark for what some politicians are predicting 3+ months?
Film Festivals are already responding to the crisis and adapting to the coming changes to media releases in the coming months. Cannes Film Festival which usually premiers in May has already been cancelled, marking only the second cancellation in the Festival's 50+ year run. In addition, The Golden Globes, governed by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, was the first popular Award Show to release the statement that in 2021, it will for the first time extend movie nominations to films released via streaming services. Prior to this statement, in order to be considered for the Golden Globes, content had to be first screened in theaters. This is huge and its extension will most likely impact the other Award Shows such as SAG and Oscars - potentially changing the criteria for films to be recognized for years to come.
We have already seen the warning signs, movie ticket sales dropped from $11.9 Billion in 2018 to $11.3 Billion in 2019 – both years had full slates of re-boots and sequel content and it still wasn’t enough to increase movie going attendance. While movie ticket sales are dropping, streaming services have only continued to up their game. Netflix has released over 370 movies, series and other content on its site in 2019, that is a 54.6% increase in new content over the 240 shows and pictures it released in 2018. And with the increase in streaming options, platforms like Apple + and Disney + are only going to release their output. Which means, why leave home to stream new content when you don’t have to?
Studios are getting creative with new ways to release some of their films that only had ~2-3 Weeks of screen time before they were shut down and they are trying to come up with the perfect price to list their films straight to release. “The Way Back”, “The Invisible Man” and “The Hunt” all went straight to streaming services after their botched release attempt in theaters. Which begs the question: how much would you pay to watch a movie in your home the weekend of release? Most studios released their films for $20 Rental, but to most streamers, it wasn’t worth the view when they could watch free content instead.
Worst of all, some films aren’t even going to be given the chance to debut in a theatre. Disney’s “Artemis Fowl” a nearly $100 Million Budget Film was slated to be released in theaters May 2020. Instead, Disney is scraping the theatre release and instead of pushing back the date, it's going straight to Disney Plus for most viewers to watch for just $5.99/month. Yikes. That’s a huge loss.
Dame Judi Dench’s in "Disney's Artemis Fowl" make-up is perhaps the worst part of their tragedy.
So, will movie theatre chains ever recover? Unfortunately, it’s not looking good. AMC S&P ratings were average prior to shutting down in March, they weren’t terrible, but could be improved. Now, re-evaluating their credit standings just three weeks later, their scores have dropped so low that it is highly unlikely that they will ever re-cover. While the US has given the April 30th closure date, dependent on factors worsening or improving, AMC has stated that they will have theaters closed until June, missing out on 3-4 months of movie releases.
We all saw this coming, however, COVID seems to be the last straw when it comes to theatrical viewing, a sad thing to face.
And that’s the sitch.
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